At a private dinner in the Washington home of a prominent policymaker, a gathering of former and current Middle East analysts reviewed the administration’s views on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and concluded that very little progress would be made during the years ahead. Surprisingly, the reasons given for this prediction had less to do with the influence of the administration’s pro-Israel neo-conservatives, or the succession of a new Palestinian leadership, than it did with the “thin calculus of constituent politics” that motivates the White House.
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